Alarm zorzowy

Oryginalny komunikat:

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

Issued: 09:30 UTC on 29 May 2005

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch

www.spacew.com

 

 

VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY

VALID UNTIL: 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) ON 30 MAY

 

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 29 MAY (UTC DAYS)

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 29-30 MAY

 

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 15, 10, 10 (29 MAY - 01 JUNE)

 

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

 

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 HOURS

MINOR BELT = 24 HOURS

 

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

 

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE

 

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR

 

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

 

SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN

MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO

TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO NORTHERN MAINE TO NEW BRUNSWICK.

 

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

 

EXTREME NORTHERN SCOTLAND TO EXTREME NORTHERN DENMARK TO SOUTHERN NORWAY

TO SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

 

EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND.

 

SYNOPSIS...

 

The shock front from a coronal mass ejection has been observed impacting

the ACE spacecraft. Impact at the Earth is expected near 10:00 UTC on 29 May.

Initially, the interplanetary magnetic field imbedded within the disturbance

has turned northward, which will help keep auroral activity at minimal levels

for now. A southward turning is possible later, however, and could drive

periods of stronger auroral activity and minor auroral storm conditions later

if it materializes. As a result, a mid-latitude auroral activity watch is

being issued for the next 24 hours. Many middle latitude dark-sky locations

may spot periods of activity during the next 24 hours.

 

This watch will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on

30 May. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated

information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time

plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

 

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:

http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

 

 

** End of Watch **