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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 09:00 UTC on 24 August 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 25 AUGUST

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 24 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 24-25 AUGUST

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 65, 30, 15, 12 (24 - 27 AUGUST)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
								MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *AUGUST* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
  (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

  OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
  NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *AUGUST* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
  (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

  CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
  REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.

  NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS
  OF ACTIVITY IF SUITABLE STORM CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE DURING DARKNESS.

SYNOPSIS...

 The arrival of a coronal mass ejection from a recent major M5 solar
flare has become much stronger than anticipated. Intense magnetic fields
within the disturbance are currently being observed that have a favorable
orientation for producing periods of strong auroral storm activity. Major to
severe geomagnetic and auroral storming is expected to commence within the
next several hours, particularly if current field orientations persist.
Widespread mid-latitude observations of auroral activity may be observed,
depsite the brightness of the moon. We do not expect the activity to persist
into the evening hours of 24 August over North America.

 This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
25 August. Note that this is 24 hours later than the previous watch that was
released. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

	   PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
			 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **